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HDB resale prices saw steady growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, rising 2.6% compared to the previous quarter. According to data published by HDB on January 24, this marks the 19th consecutive quarter of price increase in the resale housing market. The overall price increase for the whole of 2024 was 9.7%, almost double the 4.9% increase registered in 2023.
The rise in resale prices in the last quarter of 2024 was slightly lower than the 2.7% increase recorded in the third quarter. According to Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at SRI, the strong price growth seen throughout 2024 can largely be attributed to the limited supply of flats that reached their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) during the year.
Out of the various types of flats in the HDB resale market, five-room flats saw the highest price growth in the fourth quarter of 2024. The average resale price for five-room flats jumped 2.2% to $754,097. Meanwhile, resale prices for four-room flats increased 2.2% to $652,544 in the same period.
The Central Area saw the highest increase in prices, growing 25.6%. The top five towns with the highest quarterly price growth were Toa Payoh (12.1%), Tampines (6.9%), Bishan (6.7%), and Bedok (6.1%).
A total of 285 HDB resale flats were sold for $1 million or more in the last three months of 2024. This brings the total number of million-dollar HDB resale transactions to 1,035 for the whole of 2024. More than 90% of these transactions occurred in mature estates, with the Kallang/Whampoa estate seeing the highest number of million-dollar flats changing hands at 156 units.
The transaction volume in the HDB resale market fell 21.1% from 8,142 units in the third quarter to 6,424 units in the fourth quarter. According to Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia, seasonal factors such as the year-end holiday and festive season contributed to the decline in transaction volume. The lower interest rate environment may have also encouraged some buyers to move to the private residential market or the Executive Condominium (EC) market.
In addition, some prospective buyers may have opted to ballot for a flat in the October 2024 Build-to-Order (BTO) sales exercise, according to SRI’s Sandrasegeran. This BTO sales exercise saw HDB launch a record 15 projects comprising 8,573 flats under the new location-based classification framework. For the first time, singles were also allowed to buy two-room flexi BTO flats in all locations.
Despite the quarter-end lull in transaction volume, the overall resale transaction volume for 2024 increased by 8.4% compared to 2023. This marks the largest number of yearly resale transactions since 2021, when 31,017 flats were sold.
As per data compiled by Huttons Asia, the top five most popular HDB towns among buyers were Sengkang, Woodlands, Punggol, Tampines and Yishun in 2024. These estates accounted for around 35.9% of all HDB resales in the same period.
Looking ahead, approximately 6,976 flats are expected to reach the end of their MOP this year, a 41.6% decrease from 2024. Sandrasegeran attributes this to the fewer BTO flats being completed in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic.
In response, HDB has announced plans to launch over 25,000 new flats across three BTO sales exercises in 2025. This comprises 19,600 BTO flats and over 5,500 flats under the Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercise. The next SBF exercise will take place concurrently with the upcoming BTO sales exercise in February, where 5,000 BTO flats in Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown, Woodlands, and Yishun will be offered.
About 4 in 10 of the 5,500 SBF flats will be offered next month are already completed. The substantial increase in public housing supply aims to address the growing demand for housing. About 3,800 units of the 19,600 BTO flats will be designated as Shorter Waiting Time (SWT) flats, offering wait times of less than three years.
Sandrasegeran predicts an increase in resale prices for 2025 ranging from 3.5% to 5.5%, with resale transaction volume between 26,000 and 27,000. However, Hutton’s Lee projects a more optimistic price increase of between 5% to 8% for the year.